International Economic Policy · 2019/20
Master in International Markets
   

 
 


Antonio Quesada
Office 314
Departament d'Economia
Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Avinguda de la Universitat 1
43204 Reus (Catalonia)

Office hours (February - May 2020)
Tuesday  08.00-09.00 & 11.00-13.00
Thursday
08.00-11.00

Office hours can be requested at aqa@urv.cat 


Classroom A2.2
· 30 March 2020 -  29 May 2020

Monday 17.00-19:00  and  Wednesday  17.00-19.00

 
Sessions 
March
30








April
1
15
20
22 27 29


May 4 6 11 13 18 20 25 27












This is it  Bad policy kills 
'COVID-19 Animation: What Happens If You Get Coronavirus?Youtube  28 Mar 2020

COVID-19 global cases by the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University (or here) 2 Apr 2020
'[LIVE] Coronavirus pandemic: Real time counter| Roylab Stats  Youtube  3 May 2020 

'The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios|  Warwick J. McKibbin / Roshen Fernando  brookings.edu 2 Mar 2020
'What should a fiscal response to a COVID-19 outbreak look like'  |  Jay Shambaugh brookings.edu 3 Mar 2020  
'Global macroeconomics of coronavirus|  Warwick J. McKibbin  brookings.edu 9 Mar 2020 
'Three macroeconomic issues and Covid-19|   Leonardo Cadamuro / Francesco Papadia  bruegel.com  10 Mar 2020 
'Coronavirus and macroeconomic policy|  Luca Fornaro / Martin Wolf  VOX  10 Mar 2020
'Coronavirus will bankrupt more people than it kills — and that's the real global emergency| Omar Hassan  Independent  11 Mar 2020
'An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europebruegel.com  12 Mar 2020 
'Coronanomics 101: which policy tools will contain the economic threat of COVID-19?|  Barry Eichengreen  World Economic Forum 12 Mar 2020
'COVID-19 likely to cost economy $1 trillion during 2020|  UN news 9 Mar 2020
'COVID-19 and the US economy: FAQ on the economic impact & policy response|  Jay Shambaugh  Brookings 23 Mar 2020
'It could take three years for the US economy to recover from COVID-19|  Laura Oliver  WEForum 30 Mar 2020
'Lockdown is the world's biggest psychological experiment - and we will pay the price|  Elke Van Hoof  WEForum 9 Apr 2020
'The economic impact of COVID-19|  Daniel Bachman  Deloitte 3 Mar 2020

'Our politics isn’t designed to protect the public from Covid-19| George Monbiot  The Guardian  18 Mar 2020
'ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme|  European Central Bank  18 Mar 2020
'Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently|  politico.com  19 Mar 2020
'What Economic Analyses of Past Pandemics Can Tell Us About the COVID-19 Aftermath|  reason.com  20 Mar 2020 
'Coronavirus Recession Looms, Its Course ‘Unrecognizable’|  Nelson D. Schwartz  New York Times  21 Mar 2020 
'Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia?|  Helier Cheung BBC News  21 Mar 2020
'Largest monthly drop in Eurozone consumer confidence ever in March|  think.ing  23 Mar 2020
'The Coronavirus pandemic and the new world it is creating| EU External Action  23 Mar 2020

'6 economic surveys show coronavirus is hammering the global economy| Theron Mohamed  24 Mar 2020
  COVID-19: Brifing materials Mckinsey.com   25 Mar 2020
'The economic effects of COVID-19 around the world|  Rosamond Hutt  World Economic Forum  26 Mar 2020
'It could take three years for the US economy to recover from COVID-19|  Laura Oliver  World Economic Forum  30 Mar 2020
'5 charts that show the global economic impact of coronavirusReuters staff  World Economic Forum  31 Mar 2020
'UN's Guterres: COVID-19 most challenging crisis since WW II|   eNCA  1 Apr 2020
'Coronavirus: US jobless claims hit 6.6 million as virus spreads|   BBC News  2 Apr 2020  US jobless claims 
'Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic impact|   BBC News  2 Apr 2020  Stock market  Pollution  Chinese production  Oil  OECD growth forecast

'China Wants to Use the Coronavirus to Take Over the World|  Bruno Maçães  3 Apr 2020
'The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order|  Henry A. Kissinger  3 Apr 2020
'How COVID-19 Crunch Compares To Spanish Flu, Great Depressionr|  Peter Cohan  Forbes  6 Apr 2020
  'The EU Should Issue Perpetual Bonds'  |  George Soros  project syndicate 20 Apr 2020
  'Will Global Governance Prove Itself?'  |  C Manlan  H-M Yéré  project syndicate 24 Apr 2020
  'Europe’s Welcome Pandemic Response'  |  Sylvain Broyer  project syndicate 24 Apr 2020

  Working paper: Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty  |  UN University
  An ‘Economic Rescue Plan For All’ to tackle the Coronavirus crisis  |  Oxfam International  9 Apr 2020
  'Coronavirus: Half a billion people could be pushed into poverty'  |  Alasdair Sandford euronowews  9 Apr 2020
  'Half a billion people could be pushed into poverty by coronavirus|  Oxfam  9 Apr 2020
'Air pollution remains low as Europeans stay at home'' Sentinel-5P  16 Apr 2020
  'Commission adopts banking package to facilitate lending to households and businesses|  28 Apr 2020
  'Ursula von der Leyen’s disaster management'  |  POLITICO  29 Apr 2020

'Intensifying Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, Trump Is Weaponizing Coronavirus'  |  Marjorie Cohn  truthout.org (on Covid-19)  15 Apr 2020 
'Despair and Disparity: The Uneven Burdens of COVID-19'  |   truthout.org (on Covid-19)  15 Apr 2020 
'Pop-up bike lanes help with coronavirus physical distancing in Germany'  |   Philip Oltermann  The Guardian  13 Apr 2020 
A brand new economy with recycled goods'  |   City of Amsterdam (Kate Raworth and doughnut economics)

  COVID-19 impact on European air traffic  EUROCONTROL  28 Apr 2020 ( Daily traffic variation  1  2  18 Apr 2019  16 Apr 2020 )
  'China starts major trial of state-run digital currency'  |  Helen Davidson The Guardian  28 Apr 2020

  The state of food security and nutrition in the world  |   2019 Report  FAO ( UN global issues: food )
UN COVID-19 response  3 May 2020
'Yanis Varoufakis on the economic and political impact of the coronavirus15 Mar 2020 Youtube 
'Yanis Varoufakis: Europe's latest historic failure23 Mar 2020 Youtube 
'Covid-19: The economy, explained'  9 Apr 2020 Youtube

IMF: The great lockdown
Covid safety ranking  Eurozone  Top-40 dkv 12 Apr 2020

'Managing Liquidity in a Crisisgfmag.com 14 Apr 2020
'Central Banks’ Bold Cuts Leave No Room For Encoregfmag.com  9 Apr 2020

'The Reality Of The End Of Oil|  Robert Rapoer  oilprice.com 11 Apr 2020
'We're Barreling Toward An Epic Glut Of Oil|  Camila Domonoske  npr 20 Mar 2020
'Free Fall: Oil Prices Go Negative|  Camila Domonoske  npr 20 Apr 2020
'Oil plunges 321% into negative territory for the first time ever|  Saloni Sardana  20 Apr 2020
'WTI crude price goes negative for the first time in history|  worldoil.com 20 Apr 2020
'Oil prices fall to historic lows|  Dallasnews.com  20 Apr 2020
Oil price charts  |  oilprice.com

'COVID-19 Could Kill China’s $3.8 Trillion New Silk Road|  Oxford Business Group  oilprice.com 20 Apr 2020
'Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'|  Laura Spinney  The Guardian  26 Apr 2020
'POLITICO's Virtual Brussels Playbook Interview with Thomas Piketty|  Youtube  POLITICO Europe  28 Apr 2020
'Coronavirus: who will be winners and losers in new world order?|  Patrick Wintour The Guardian 11 Apr 2020

'Coronabonds with or without GermanyWorld Inequality Database  20 Apr 2020
Coronavirus research SSRN
ERSA COVID-19 forum
NPR · The Coronavirus Crisis
Eurostat statistics on Covid-19  |  ec.europa.eu   Eurostat
Eurozone indicators: 'GDP down by 3.8% in the euro area'  Unemployment  Inflation  GDP  Income  Eurostat  29 Apr 2020

European Commission Coronavirus Response
 ECB response to the coronavirus pandemic
'Extraordinary times require extraordinary action. There are no limits to our commitment to the euro. We are determined to use the full potential of our tools, within our mandate.' Christine Lagarde
Project Syndicate · Coverage of the pandemic

  'The Populists’ Pandemic' |  Andrés Velasco  Project Syndicate  1 May 2020
  'How to Avoid a W-Shaped Recession' |  Jeffrey Frankel  Project Syndicate  1 May 2020
'The Fed says it will do what it can to bolster the economy|  NYTimes  30 Apr 2020
Word Health Organization COVID-19 dashboard  WHO

TED talks: 'Coronavirus is our future' & 'Why COVID-19 is hitting us now'  | Alanna Shaikh  Mar 2020
TED talk: 'What coronavirus means for the global economy'  |  Ray Dalio  9 Apr 2020

COVID-19 and the New Leadership Agenda  Boston Consulting Group (thanks to Ivan Abraldes for this report by BCG)
'Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area|  Niccolò Battistini & Grigor Stoevsky  ECB  1 May 2020
'Economic outlook, crisis impact and road to recovery|  Luis de Guindos  ECB  7 May 2020

'Will COVID-19 Remake the World?|  Dani Rodrik  Project Syndicate  6 Apr 2020
'An Abysmal Failure of Leadership|  Joseph S. Nye, Jr.  Project Syndicate  7 May 2020
'Humanity needs leadership and solidarity to defeat the coronavirus|  United Nations Development Programme

'Spring 2020 Economic Forecast  Report  |  European Commission  6 May 2020
'Coronavirus Global Response: €7.4 billion raised|  European Commission  4 May 2020
Economic performance and forecasts  Economic and fiscal policy coordination  Jobs and economy during the coronavirus pandemic  |  European Commission Economic response

  'Mitigating the Impact of Pandemic Influenza through Vaccine InnovationCouncil of Economic Advisers to the President of the USA  Sep 2019
EJAtlas - Global Atlas of Environmental Justice   |   EJAtlas 7 May 2020
'Why the English sacrificed liberty for lockdown' |  James Kirkup  unherd.com   23 Apr 2020
'Which epidemiologist do you believe? The debate about lockdown' |  Freddie Sayers  unherd.com   27 Apr 2020
'How China is exploiting pandemic panic' |  Ian Birrell  unherd.com   30 Apr 2020  Xi+Trump 
'Covid-19 is hardening our borders' |  Tim Marshall  unherd.com   4 May 2020
'Covid is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity' |  Peter Franklin  unherd.com   5 May 2020
'Is the lockdown doing more harm than good?' |  Tom Chivers  unherd.com   5 May 2020

'In a Plague Year' |  Mike Davis  jacobinmag.com  14 Mar 2020
'New Pathogen, Old Politics' |  Alex de Waal  jacobinmag.com  3 Apr 2020
'German court ruling ties ECB's hands - now and in the future' |  Balazs Koranyi & Francesco Canepa  Reuters  5 May 2020
'German court criticises European Central Bank crisis bond-buying' |   BBC news  5 May 2020
 
'Christine Lagarde says ECB is ‘undeterred’ by German court challenge' |  Martin Arnold  Financial Times  7 May 2020

'Je ne crois pas aux déclarations du genre « rien ne sera plus jamais comme avant » - Michel Houellebecq' |  Augustin Trapenard  4 May 2020 (in French)
'Borrell: "El coronavirus ha desequilibrado el mundo, hay un desorden multipolar dominado por la rivalidad EEUU-China"|  Andrés Gil  eldiario.es  7 May 2020 (in Spanish)
(Josep Borrell is the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy)


'Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers'  (17th issue 13 May 2020)  |  cepr.org
'The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery' |  Louise Sheiner & Kadija Yilla  Brookings 4 May 2020
'More Europe or less?' |  The Economist  21 Mar 2020
'Coronavirus: Recession, response, recovery' |  Chetan Ahya  Morgan Stanley  25 Mar 2020
'Morgan Stanley warns of a possible collapse of the GDP in Spain of 22.6%' |  web24.news  28 Apr 2020
'The debt dilemma' |  Michael Roberts blog  10 May 2020
'What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common? Women Leaders' |  Avivah Wittenberg-Cox  Forbes 13 Apr 2020

'Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic impact'  ( pdf version) | Lora Jones, Daniele Palumbo & David Brown  BBC News  30 Apr 2020
'COVID-19: World economy in 2020 to suffer worst year since 1930s Great Depression, says IMF |  Euronews  14 Apr 2020
'Who will be the winners in a post-pandemic economy? |  Mohit Joshi  World Economic Forum  20 Apr 2020
'New tech infrastructure will help economies recover after COVID-19 |  Lei Xu World Economic Forum  12 May 2020
'This is the effect COVID-19 will have on global poverty, according to the World Bank |  Daniel Mahler & Christoph Lakner  World Economic Forum  11 May 2020
'The Global Risks Report 2020'  (Report |  World Economic Forum  15 Jan 2020  (do not look for the coronavirus pandemic here)
'How to Create a Pandemic Depression. Opening the economy too soon could backfire, badly |  Paul Krugman  NYTimes  11 May 2020
'Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic |  Wikipedia  13 May 2020
'Today’s Numbers: The COVID Economy |  Scott Tong & Mitchell Hartman  Marketplace.org  13 May 2020

'The longer-run economic consequences of pandemics|  Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 8 Apr 2020
'Coronavirus meets the Great Influenza Pandemic|  Robert Barro, Jose Ursua, Joanna Weng  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 20 Mar 2020
'COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work|  Richard Baldwin, Simon Evenett  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 29 Apr 2020
'COVID-induced economic uncertainty and its consequences|  Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Stephen Terry  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 13 Apr 2020
'How COVID-19 is transforming the world economy|  Kemal Kilic, Dalia Marin  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 10 May 2020
'The economic impact of Covid-19 in Europe and the US|  Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri, Andrea Presbitero  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 11 May 2020
'COVID-19: Europe needs a catastrophe relief plan|  Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Ramon Marimon, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lucrezia Reichlin, Dirk Schoenmaker, Beatrice Weder di Mauro  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 11 Mar 2020
'Economics in the time of COVID-19: A new eBook|  Richard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 6 Mar 2020
'Oil price wars in a time of COVID-19| Rabah Arezki, Rachel Yuting Fan  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 10 Mar 2020
'Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes|  Richard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro  VOX CEPR Policy Portal 18 Mar 2020
'What the stock market tells us about the consequences of COVID-19|  Stefano Ramelli, Alexander Wagner   VOX CEPR Policy Portal 12 Mar 2020
'A risk-centric perspective on the central banks’ Covid-19 policy response|  Ricardo Caballero, Alp Simsek   VOX CEPR Policy Portal 30 Apr 2020

'Coronavirus: What shape will the recession be V  U  W  L  |  Peter Hoskins  BBC News 10 May 2020
'Coronavirus: Pandemic sends US jobless rate to 14.7% US unemployment BBC News 8 May 2020
'Bank of England warns of sharpest recession on record UK downturn  |  Szu Ping Chan  BBC News 7 May 2020
'Covid-19 has become an 'economic crisis' says chief economist|  Douglas Fraser  BBC News 21 Apr 2020
'COVID-19: Implications for business'  (Full report or here) |  McKinsey  13 May 2020
'The Social and Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region' (Document) |  United Nations Development Programme  28 Apr 2020
The OECD on COVID-19 |  OECD  2 Apr 2020
Covid-19 statistical resources (BIS, Bank for International Settlements) BIS  2 Apr 2020

Covid-19 transmissions  Nextstrain (Real-time tracking of pathogen evolution)  Beginning   End (12 May 2020)
  'Coronavirus: Are the lockdowns actually working?'  |  Abacaba  Youtube  23 Apr 2020
  'Coronavirus update: Recoveries vs. deaths in each country'  |  Abacaba  Youtube  28 Feb 2020 

'Angela Merkel, rotunda: "L'Estat-nació no té futur"' |  Lluís Bou  elnacional.cat  20 May 2020 (in Catalan)  ( Merkel's  statement (in German) (source) English translation )
'The Global Economic Impact of COVID-19|  Nomura    Apr 2020
'Open letter to the EU and European leaders: ‘We need Renaissance bonds to face the health and economic crisis’|  voxeurop   6 Apr 2020
'Flattening the COVID-19 Curve in Developing Countries|  Ricardo Hausmann  Project Syndicate  24 Mar 2020
'Think The COVID Catastrophe Is Expensive? The Climate One Could Cost $1 Quadrillion|  Steve Zwick   17 Apr 2020
COVID is round 1 - climate change comes next  Cartoon (source)   KAL
'The coronavirus spreads to the markets and monetary policy takes urgent action'  ( Monthly report) |  caixabankresearch  16 Apr 2020
'COVID-19: Europe needs a catastrophe relief plan|  Agnès Bénassy-Quéré et al. VOX CPR Policy Portal  11 Mar 2020

'The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery|   Louise Sheiner & Kadija Yilla  Brookings  4 May 2020 
'Z, V or 'Nike swoosh' – what shape will the COVID-19 recession take?|  Peter Beech  weforum.org  19 May 2020
'Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-COVID-19 World' ( Report) |     weforum.org  19 May 2020 
'Viral recessions: Lack of demand during the coronavirus crisis|  Veronica Guerrieri et al. VOX CPR Policy Portal  6 May 2020 
'Europe's COVID Crossroads|  Bertrand Badré , Mathilde Lemoine Project Syndicate  18 May 2020
'Predicting the supply and demand shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic|  R. Maria del Rio-Chanona et al. Project Syndicate  16 May 2020
'The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression|  Kristalina Georgieva   IMF  23 Mar 2020
'Covid-19 highlights problems of dollar dominance|  Nicky Morris    Mar 2020
'Covid-19 and corporate sector liquidity|  BIS  28 Apr 2020
A Good Life For All Within Planetary Boundaries (The Wellbeing–Consumption Paradox) World database on happiness
Fighting the COVID-19 Sack cartoon: The outbreak and the economy
'Merkel and Macron propose €500bn EU rescue fund|  Daniel Boffey  The Guardian  18 May 2020




 
 


Lecture notes
 

  Lecture notes 1 - Main issues  4 Apr 2020 

  Lecture notes 2 - International order/anarchy   15 Apr 2020

  Lecture notes 3 - International money and finance  27 Apr 2020 

  Lecture notes 4 - Integration vs fragmentation (in green, the references added to the previous version) |  11 &17 May 2020 


A Covid trilemma: is there a tension between saving lives (or preserving welfare), saving the economy (GDP growth) and saving civil and political freedoms (democracy)?

A remark: the last three global shocks hit the international order (9/11 attacks), international finance (the 2008 financial crisis) and integration (the Covid-19 pandemic).

A Covid false dilemma? Saving people vs saving the economy  A chart by Luis Huete (in Spanish) 

Spanish study on Covid-19 antibodies (IgG anti SARS-CoV-2, impact on Spanish provinces) 
Deaths by Covid-19 in Spain (17 Mar - 17 May 2020)
  'Antibody study shows that 5% of Spaniards have contracted coronavirus'  |  elpais.com  14 May 2020
           
 COVID-19 as a trolley problem  1  2 



Links
 
 
  Fragile states index   
  Institute for international economic policy   
  Institute of international finance  
  World economic forum   
  TARGET2  | Explainer · Eurocrisis monitor 
  Ifo Institute
  Financial stability board

Good life within planetary boundaries | Boundaries | Social | Biophysical
Understanding conflict 
Flight from nature 

Planetary boundaries  |   Can we live inside the doughnut
UK Environment Plan  UK’s contribution to stopping global warming  (Report) 
Stepping back from the brink  George Monbiot
Global reports: Human Development Report | World Development Report | Global Financial Development Report 
   



Evaluation

Pick at least one option

1. Summarize at least two books from the lecture notes and discuss the main ideas critically
2. Summarize and organize the information from an extensive selection of the links above
3. Prepare and motivate a syllabus for an IEP course (assuming you had to teach it)
4. Suggest another proposal along lines similar to options 1 and 2


Links 

Global debt   IMF (Jan 2019)  Debt  History (IMF.org) ·  $244 trillion (Jan 2019)
Sectoral debt  · Global debt-to-GDP ratio (Q3 2018): 318% (bloomberg.com)
Debt clocks
·  List of countries by external debt  · Debt-to-GDP 2019  
Visualizing global debt (McKinsey Global Institute) 

Global inequality   Global wealth inequality · High or rising inequality  · Richest 1%  
  Global wealth databook and report (Credit Suisse) ·   Global wealth report 
  World inequality report 2018 ·  World inequality report · World inequality database 


  World social report 2020  www.un.org 
Global debt  $257 trillion (13 Jan 2020)   IMF (Dec 2019)   IMF Global debt database
'How did Spain get its coronavirus response so wrong?'  | The Guardian 26 Mar 2020  
'[LIVE] Coronavirus pandemic: Real time counter| Roylab Stats  Youtube
Covid-19 World & US 26 Mar 2020 (Roylab Stats)  Covid-19 US 26 Mar 2020 (Guardian)

Coronavirus world: 'Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border' | BBC 26 Mar 2020

'Coronabonds': 'EU leaders clash over economic response to coronavirus crisis' | The Guardian 26 Mar 2020 
'Jinping calls on Trump to improve US-China relations' | The Guardian 27 Mar 2020 


'8 ways the world could suddenly end| Stephen Petranek 11 Mar 2014 Youtube
'Coronavirus is our future' | Alanna Shaikh Youtube 11 Mar 2020
'The politics of coronavirus'  20 Mar 2020 Youtube | 'How will the Coronavirus change global politics?' | DW Analysis 19 Mar 2020 Youtube

OECD Economic Outlook, Interim report March 2020  ( OECD|  OECD outlook after coronavirus
The IMF on the coronavirus emergency  1  2 
G20: to do whatever-it-takes on coronavirus | Guardian 26 Mar 2020


COVID-19:  27 Mar 2020  12 May 2020


Last update: 21 May 2020 · 10:30