Master in International Markets
|
Master in International Markets |
|
Antonio
Quesada Office hours can be requested at aqa@urv.cat |
Classroom A2.2
· 27 September 2018 - 25 January 2019 Thursday 15:00-17:00 (effective: 15:05-16:45) · Population · Granville · Last day
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What
does the world actually look like?
The
human face of globalization:
are
people becoming physically more alike?
 Lecture notes and linksSession 1. General ideas | A summary of questions and ideas from the 2017 course | Conceptual map Session 2. Big history, globalization waves, automation, economic paradox of the technological singularity  Geological time
scale (Gaia Vince, 2014, Adventures in the
Anthropocene) How to mislead
with charts Chart
1 Chart
2 (Chris Martenson, 2011, The unsustainable future
of our economy) Session 3. Longest-run globalization, globalism, Rodrik's trilemma, 'paradoxes,' sustainability, collapse 
Longest-run globalization: Human
expansion
| Domestication
| Societies
(Neil Roberts, 2014, Holocene: Environmental history)  GDP
per capita (Angus Maddison) |
1820-2010 A few
Many | 1945-2010 The 100
most influential people in history? (Michael H.
Hart, 1993) Reality vs the
perception of reality (scale effects) On maps: What does 'the world' look
like? Inequality
(The
elephant curve, http://prospect.org/article/worlds-inequality)
50 ideas on
the future (Richard Watson, 2012) What will
happen doing business as usual ( The limits to growth,
1972, Donella Meadows et al) Planetary
boundaries (http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855)
Epochs of resource-based development
(E Barbier, 2011,
How economies have
developed through natural resource exploitation) Two views on
environmental impacts Doomsady
Clock ( Wikipedia ) Tech, social, political,
economic change (Alexandru
Vulpe, 2016, '“Technology Advancements in 2050')
Asians vs
Westerners (R Nisbett 2003:
How
Asians and Westerners think differently and why, p. 141)
Session 4. Globalization slowdown, inconsistent quartet, Triffin general dilemma, Bremmer's J curve, winners & losers
Currency areas in
2004 (R A Mundell,
2003, 'The International Monetary System and the case
for a world currency') World GPD in the
last 500 years (Jin Kay,
2017, Rising China in a changing world) World trade
network (Peter Dicken, 2015, Mapping
the changing contours of the world economy) GDP per capita (Peter Dicken,
2015, Mapping the changing contours of the world economy) Kondratiev
long waves (Peter Dicken,
2015, Mapping the changing contours of the world economy) Inequality
(developed countries) (Peter Dicken,
2015, Mapping the changing contours of the world economy) Inequality
(developing countries) (Peter Dicken,
2015, Mapping the changing contours of the world economy) Cities (Peter Dicken,
2015, Mapping the changing contours of the world economy)
Dow
Jones | 1928-2018 | 1928-1953 | 1986-2018 | 2008-2018 |
2016-2018 | 2018 |
GDP
per capita (Angus Maddison)
BRA MOR PHL IRN SPA SVK TUR VEN |
1830-2016 | 1930-2016 Session 5. Dying democracies, more trilemmas, AI, old/new power, migration, Kuznets waves, Richistan The elephant
curve of global inequality Session 6. Curses, technology, laws of sociodynamics, global order, future of civilization, Trumponomics, 2052
AI:
they are here... (07/12/17:
Google's AlphaZero destroys Stockfish 8, the 2016
computer chess world championafter learning how to play chess in four hours) Planetary boundaries |
Reports to the Club of Rome |
Model by Jorgen
Randers (2052: A
global forecast)
Kondratiev innovation
waves |
Human
development index vs ecological footprint
Forecast under the
'business as usual' assumption (H Meadows et al,
1972, The limits to
growth)
Possible futures
(Paul Raskins, Taxonomy of the future) | Convergence?
The four-generation
theory on the cyclicity of history(Ibn Khaldun, in Robert Greene, 2018, The laws of human nature)
Data and reality: an
example of manipulation |
Reality is fuzzy (Evolution of poverty, Johan Norberg, 2016, Progress: Ten reasons to look forward to the future) Session 7. Local money, capitalism, democracy, AI trends, globalization myths, networks, climate change, humanity's challenges Session 8. China, historical dynamics, inequality, views of globalization, plural sector, core/periphery, the future, post-labour world, global change, us vs them, G-zero world Session 9. Faces of globalization: economic, political and social (Part I) Session 10. Faces of globalization: economic, political and social (Part II) Session X. A 100-minute crash course in globalization (coming soon) More links
World economic forum | Signs
of a US collapse in 2018 | World economics
How
globalizable is the Solar System? If
the Moon were one pixel
The
rise of bullshit jobs (D. Graeber)
World
values survey (see the Inglehart-Welzel
cultural map 2010-2014)
Global
debt database
| Liberal
world order, RIP? | Project Syndicate | Twilight
of the euro?
Globalization
of the economy (Global
Policy Forum) | World Trade
Organization · Documents
and resources
What
do we actually know about the economy? (P
Krugman)
|
US-China
trade: next cold war?
IMF
World Economic Outlook 2018
|
World
Bank Development Indicators
| KOF
globalization index
Seven challenges
to globalization World Economic
Forum
The
President of the European Commission in
action (thanks to David and, of course,
Jean-Claude) |
Evaluation
All the following activities are voluntary 0. Attendance (at least 11-12 of the 14 sessions) 1. Multiple-choice test · 10th January, 2019 · 30 questions · 4 options · Error penalized (You have to sit this exam to obtain a top-level mark) 2. Essay · To be delivered preferable by e-mail as a pdf attachment not later than the 30th of January, 2019 (The maximum mark obtainable by just writing the essay is around 7/8 over 10) Suggestions > A few pages long (anything between 4/5 to 10/12) > Focus the essay on a specific topic/question/issue: avoid broad topics or a multiplicity of topics > Try to formulate one or two basic questions to which the essay will be the answer > Try to define alternative views of the question you analyze and provide convincing reasons to support your view and to discard the other views > Identify the main ideas of the course and connect your analysis with those ideas (For instance, since Rodrik's trilemma is one of those main ideas, you could discuss how relevant this result is for the question that is studied in your essay. Also, how is your question/topic affected by/related to the different dimensions of globalization: economic, political, social, technological, ecological?) > The essay could be based on the chapter of a book, an academic article, some report written by some think-tank or international organization or a piece of news: summarize, comment, discuss, criticize... the main ideas presented in the chapter, article, report or news > The essay could identify and develop the essentials of some topic that you find missing in the course > The essay could be a 5-page crash course in globalization > The essay could as well be about what you liked/disliked in the course and what you would add/remove/change > The essay could discuss how a specific country is affected by the globalization dimensions presented in the course > The essay could describe the contents you would teach in a 'Challenges of globalization' course, motivating both the selection of contents and their organization 3. Presentation and seminar · 30th January, 2019 · 15.00 · Classroom to be announced (The essays will be summarily presented and participants will be allowed to make questions to the speaker. Presentations, questions and answers will be taken into account to set the final mark.) 4. Class participation (mainly in the final five sessions) 5. Would you like to review some essay written by a classmate? 6. Other activities students may suggest Links
Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences 2018
to William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer |
8 Oct 2018Nobelprize.com | Washington Post | NY Times | Guardian "For integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis" (William D. Nordhaus) "For integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis" (Paul M. Romer)
National
Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030 |
Global
Trends 2030 Report
Global trends World inequality report
2018 |
 World inequality lab
US
debt clock 
World population clock
The new 95 theses 44. 'The current system of higher education perpetuates inequalities in wealth and power.' 46. 'The discipline of colleges and universities is in general contrived, not for the benefit of the students, but for the interest, or more properly speaking, for the ease of the masters' Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations 48. 'The people who give exams or evaluate essays and the people who teach should not be one and the same.' 93. 'The future of education will be (i) asynchronous & synchronous, here & there, (ii) decentralized, the best content from wherever, (iii) customized — Aristotle for an army of Alexanders, (iv) with attention to measuring improvements at the edge of competence (v) accessible to all for cheap, and (vi) global.' Are we
happier? Yearbooks
from American high schools (1905-2013)
Average faces 1 2 3 4
|  Game
Face
research
1% vs 99%
Message by Stephen Hawking
(1942-2018) 
The Stephen Hawking Tribute by
Vangelis
Transhumanism (seeking the triple
S: superintelligence, superlongevity, superhappiness)
Journal
of Evolution and Technology
'Identity,
immortality, happiness: Pick two' (S Edelman, 2018) Top 10 companies (2018) By revenue (
source)
By market value
(
source)
The giants 1 |
2 (Peter
Phillips, 2018, Giants:
The global power elite)
Energy per capita
|
The fossil fuels era
(Antoine Bret, 2014,
The energy-climate continuum)
Number of countries
suffering from banking crises (Hugh
Rockoff i Isao Suto, 2018, Coping with financial crises)
Global population |
Emissions | Issues
| KOF 1970 | KOF 2016
Planetary boundaries
'The
sharing economy has been seized by big money' | Evgeny Morozov The
Guardian 27/11/18
'Il
faut moraliser la mondialisation' | Klaus Schwab Le Figaro
13/12/18
'A
summary of the evidence that most published research
is false'
List
of globalization-related journals |
Wikipedia Illusions A shocking
illusion (N Wade (2015) Art and illusionists,
p.12) Albert or
Marilyn?
| Another
illusion (N Wade (2015) Art and illusionists) Dynamic Müller-Lyer illusion · Dynamic M-L
again Slides to hallucinate More
illusions 1 2 3
4 5
6
Fun? Optimism |
It works |
Jungle |
Grading |
It works |
